Analysis by Dr. Keyvan Jafari Tehrani

Based on insights shared by Keyvan Jafari Tehrani on Radio Eghtesad's "Saraye Sarmaye" program at 13:15 on Wednesday, April 16, 2025.

Key Global & Regional Developments:

• China-Vietnam Cooperation: On March 15th, China and Vietnam initiated their joint "Belt and Road Initiative and Two Corridors, One Economic Belt" strategy. This agreement prioritizes accelerating infrastructure connectivity (rail, highways, ports, airlines) between the two countries. China's primary focus is reportedly accessing Vietnamese agricultural products.
• China Market Sentiment Improving: Reports suggest improved market sentiment in China, driven by positive Q1 2025 macroeconomic data and the impact of fiscal policies stabilizing demand in the construction sector. Continued positive sentiment could support steel prices.
• China Steel Exports Remain Strong: According to official customs data, China's steel exports hit 10.456 million tons in March 2025 (+5.7% YoY). Total exports for Q1 2025 reached 27.429 million tons (+6.3% YoY, compared to 25.78 million tons in Q1 2024). Competitive Chinese steel pricing may keep exports robust in the short term, although shifts in domestic demand or global trade policies could impact this trend.
• US Trade Policy Notes:
  • Former President Trump indicated potential flexibility regarding tariff suspensions during a transition period.
  • The US Vice President mentioned the likelihood of a "big deal" on trade between the US and the UK.
  • The European Union anticipates that current US tariffs will likely remain in place.

Commodity Price Updates:

• Iron Ore:

  • Prices rose over $4 last week, reaching approximately $100/ton on April 15th.
  • Today (April 16th), prices decreased slightly by 2 Yuan ($0.30) per ton at the time of reporting.

• Billet:

  • China: Overall steel inventories are decreasing amid rising demand, while production at major mills increased. Average daily crude steel output in early April was up 3% MoM and 4% YoY.
  • Tangshan billet price (China, Ex-Works) decreased by 14 Yuan ($2) to 2,960 Yuan ($403)/ton today (April 16th).
  • CIS billet price was unchanged at $440/ton FOB on April 15th.
  • Iran: Domestic market auctions (e.g., Arfa Steel's early 1404 auction) are reportedly being cancelled as bid prices don't align with market levels. The estimated actual Iranian billet price is $405-410/ton, benchmarked against a recent 100,000-ton sale of Chinese billet to Turkey at $458/ton CFR.

• Wire Rod:

  • China domestic price decreased by 30 Yuan ($4) to 3,260 Yuan ($444)/ton today (April 16th).
  • China export price was unchanged at $468/ton FOB on April 16th.

• Rebar:

  • China domestic price decreased by 30 Yuan ($4) to 3,055 Yuan ($416)/ton today (April 16th).
  • Turkey export price decreased by $3 to $565/ton FOB on April 16th.

• HRC (Hot-Rolled Coil):

  • China export price was unchanged at $460/ton FOB on April 15th.
  • Russia export price (Black Sea) was unchanged at $485/ton FOB on April 15th.

• Scrap:

  • Turkish import price for HMS 80:20 (US origin) decreased by $2 to $358/ton CFR on April 15th.

• Coking Coal:

  • FOB Australia premium coking coal price increased by $6 to $191/ton on April 15th.